Competitive Equity for Football

   If we study a single high school sport – football, for the 2011 season (prior to implementation of the rule) and the 2017 season (6 years into the rule), we may analyze the results of “equalizing” the chances of success for all member schools. We will study the play-off success in 2011 and 2017 for the 23 member schools which may provide student financial assistance and select or limit students – and compare to 23 randomly selected member schools which may not provide student financial assistance or select and limit students. We will assign a point value for advancing to the top eight in each classification, with additional points assigned for advancing each step. For instance, a member school will receive one point for participating in football, two points for advancing to the top eight, four points for top four, six points for top two, and eight points for “State Champion”. Using this methodology, we may compare “success” for those member schools which may provide financial assistance and select or limit students to those member schools which may not – and ultimately determine if the “bump-up” rule has been effective in “leveling the playing field”.

TABLE A (“Success” points for 23 member schools which offer SFA and Select/Limit – 2011)

1)      2          6) 6          11) 1          16) 1          21) 1

2)      6          7) 1          12) 2          17) 1          22) 1

3)      2          8) 4          13) 1          18) 1          23) 1

4)      6          9) 1          14) 1          19) 1          Total Success – 55 points

5)      8        10) 4          15) 2          20) 1          Average success – 2.39 points

TABLE B (“Success” points for 23 randomly selected member schools which may not offer SFA)

      1)      2          6) 1           11) 1           16) 2           21) 4

2)      1          7) 1           12) 1           17) 2           22) 1

3)      6          8) 1           13) 2           18) 2           23) 2

4)      1          9) 1           14) 2           19) 1           Total Success – 39 points

5)      1        10) 1           15) 1           20) 2           Average success – 1.70                               

TABLE C (“Success” points for 23 members which offer SFA and Select/Limit – 2017)

1)      6          6) 2*           11) 6           16) 2           21) 4*

2)      6          7) 2*           12) 2           17) 6           22) 4

3)      2          8) 6             13) 1*         18) 1*         23) 4

4)      8          9) 2             14) 6           19) 2*         Total Success – 86 points

5)      2        10) 4             15) 4           20) 4           Average success – 3.74

TABLE D (“Success” points for 23 random members which may not offer SFA)

1)      2          6) 1             11) 1           16) 1           21) 1

2)      1          7) 6             12) 2           17) 1           22) 1

3)      2          8) 1             13) 1           18) 1           23) 1

4)      1          9) 1             14) 1           19) 1           Total Success – 32 points

5)      1        10) 2             15) 1           20) 1           Average success – 1.39

                                                      ANALYSIS OF “SUCCESS” TABLES

   For the 2011 Oklahoma high school football season - Table A indicates a “success” rate of 55 points for those member schools which may offer student financial assistance and select/limit student enrollment. Table B (those OSSAA member schools which may not offer student financial assistance or cannot select/limit student enrollment) for the 2011 season indicates a “success” rate of 39 points. In 2011, one year before implementation of the “bump-up” rule – the success enjoyed by those schools which provide scholarships, etc. was significantly higher than those schools which do not.

   For the 2017 Oklahoma high school football season (5 years after implementation of the “bump-up” rule for leveling the playing field), Table C indicates a success rate of 86 points for those schools which provide SFA …, a 31 point increase for “success”. Table D indicates a success rate of 32 points for non-scholarship member schools, a drop of 7 points from 2011.

   This analysis of implementation of the OSSAA “bump-up” rule indicates that it has not been effective for leveling the playing field for all OSSAA member schools. As a matter of fact, the OSSAA rule may have had just the opposite effect for which it was intended. Implementation of the rule in 2012 may have provided the motivation for member schools to take advantage of the ability to provide SFA and select/limit student admissions. Evidence indicates that one member school which provides SFA, etc. experienced a success drop from “6 points” in 2011 to “1 point” in 2017 (after bumping up one enrollment based class level). The response of the school is to actually drop two class levels (from class-4A to class 2A) in order to improve its “success rate”. The ability to select/limit student enrollment has allowed this particular member school a systemic advantage for increasing its success rate.

CORR. EFFECTS OF RULE 14 (CHANCES OF SUCCESS FOR THOSE SCHOOLS WHICH PROVIDE SFA AND SA)

Methodology: A Pearson Correlation Coefficient was calculated for 23 public and private schools which provide student financial assistance to students and/or selectively admit students. The analysis was provided for the sport of football only, for the 2011 (the last year before implementation of Rule 14) and 2017 (6 years into Rule 14) seasons. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) obtains a value of between -1 and +1. A negative ‘r’ means that the effects of a specific action or factor(s) in a relationship are negatively correlated, while a positive ‘r’ means that the effects of actions or factors are positively correlated. The intent of Rule 14 for OSSAA member schools was to effectively “level the playing field” for private schools as well as public schools. By utilizing the Pearson Coefficient Correlation, a general “success” rate can be determined for the 23 schools for the 2011 season and be correlated for the same 23 schools for the 2017 season. An ‘r’ = 0 means that Rule 14 has had no significant effect on “leveling the playing field” for private schools and public schools in the OSSAA. A negative ‘r’ means that Rule 14 has had the intended effect for member schools – the playing field has been leveled. In other words, the success rate for those schools which provide student financial assistance and/or selectively admit students – significantly decreased from the 2011 h.s. football season to the 2017 season (6 years after implementation). A positive ‘r’ means that the effects of implementing Rule 14 resulted in the opposite. In other words, the implementation of Rule 14 did not “level the playing field” in football – and could have even exacerbated the problem.

Results: When the success rate for those public and private schools which provide SFA and/or SA was analyzed for the 2011 season and 2017 season, an ‘r’ = .23 was obtained. A positive .23 means that the success rate for “private” schools increased after implementation of Rule 14. Using Cohen’s (1988) Guidelines for Correlation Coefficients – the r=.23 means that public and private schools providing SFA and/or SA, are positively correlated to “success”. The closer the ‘r’ value is to ‘0’ means there is little or no correlation to the success of these schools based on the determining factors. Cohen’s Guidelines reflect that a definite correlation exists when the ‘r’ value is greater than .10 or (-.10). The goal of any classification plan should be an ‘r’ = 0 to .10. Any value greater would necessarily constitute unfair competition.
   The justification for the OSSAA to start over with a new classification system can be read here.
   We will now analyze basketball using the same success model and methodology as football... in our next article/blog: